What’s in store now….

Well… the 10-K has been released… and the stockholder/upfront meeting has concluded.  What is in store now for the company???

There appears to be 2 opposing aspects of the company at play here.  #1 being the glitz, glamour and excitement of Hollywood, that appeared to play out last night at the “Upfront” star-studded Hollywood bash.  And by many accounts, last night’s PunchTV party seemed to go extremely well.  Then, after the successful event… then came the #2 aspect… the financials in the form of the 10-K.  Unfortunately, there are differing opinions on just how good the 10-K was.  But clearly it was not representative of the glitz, glamour, and excitement of the upfront, nor, in our opinion, did it fulfill the excitement of the CEO’s statements of being the best 10-K he has ever worked on.

For those who are staunch PNCH supporters… they thought the 10-K was great.  For those that look at PNCH as an investment only, there was considerably less enthusiasm.   From a purely business standpoint, the 10-K described a company struggling for revenues, and cash starved.  Cash starved apparently in part because the 10-K listed almost $450,000. in upper management compensation.  Many cite this as excessive, for a “development stage” company (although they have actually graduated from that formal status), showing only $195,000. in revenue for the entire year of 2012.  Granted, this is over 600% increase over fiscal year 2011, but in the real world you can’t spend increases… only the 195K.  And it will take a LOT more than 195k in “revenue” to satisfy the obligation of the top executives at 450K.  There were other concerning financial aspects of the 10-K, but we will let you read it and decide for yourself.  See the full report here.

Now, in all fairness, this IS a fledgling company, and as such it is expected (and some say acceptable) for the company to have less than stellar financial reports while in their growing and expansion stage.  Most growing companies are cash starved with less than stellar financials.  Where PNCH differs from most of these other companies was mentioned in the #1 aspect above… namely the glitz, glamour, and excitement of Hollywood.  We believe this is an important aspect of this growing company that needs to be taken into consideration when evaluating the company overall.  Its called momentum.  By most accounts the momentum was clearly evident last night at the Upfront party.  Will the momentum be enough to carry the company to net profitability… who knows… but there’s a better chance of that happening WITH momentum, than without it.

Investing is a speculative business.  It is also a risk-based business.   Usually the higher the risk, the greater the return.  In short, investors are speculating that a small investment today, with a company that has an unknown future, will some day be a big well established company producing tons of revenue, thereby making their investment a profitable one, i.e, Apple, Microsoft, Google, etc., as they were once small fledgling companies at one time, who’s future was questionable.  Although PNCH today is struggling (i.e the lack-luster 10-K), the cost per share is extremely low because the risk is high that you will end up with a worthless investment.  However, when you add in the momentum aspect, it becomes somewhat more likely the business will survive, and prosper, because its fairly easy to see there is excitement surrounding the company, and that will draw revenue to it.

Because of this excitement and momentum is an investment in PNCH safe… of course not, each investor needs to evaluate the data on the company and make an informed decision about investing in the company.  Although we are not entirely pleased with PPS to date, we feel confident that the company will some day do very well and make our investment profitable.  Although we are long-term investors and therefore do not expect immediate profits on our shares.  For those of you who may be more short-term investors, you need to determine if this rate of growth fits into your investment strategy.  As many have said… this is not a stock to “flip” for a quick profit.  If you’re a flipper at heart, this stock will likely disappoint you.

So… where are we at today… well, about where we were yesterday.  The PPS is still fluctuating under a penny, and will likely stay close to that in the near future.  Perhaps there is some good news on the horizon that will kick-start the PPS upward, but lacking a substantial catalyst to get new investors excited, we are in for more of the same for a while yet.  As the successive financial reports come out, and they carry better and better numbers, we feel the PPS will increase along with the revenue.   Till then… we wait !

Still no K… and the natives are restless !

PNCH still not able to hold a penny today, however it did recover about 90% of yesterday’s loss.  Many investors find the delay in the release of the 10-K disturbing, and given that it has not been released going into the weekend, and the shareholder meeting, speculation is running rampant.  Many cite frustration at the CEO for the failed promises regarding the K release date, and are getting nervous thinking something is just not right here.

We stand by our 4/8 post here in thinking the results will be released AT the meeting.  We won’t go so far as to say Steve planned it this way, however we have to admit, the timing suggests such.  Of course we could be wrong, and the report will be released on Monday, however that just makes no sense.  Its just crazy to think Steve will stand up there at the shareholder meeting and say something to the effect of… the K is great and you can read all about it on Monday.  There are those that say he can’t release it at the meeting, but we think he could if he wanted to.  Given that the originally scheduled meeting was scheduled as a “shareholder” meeting, but later changed to a “public” meeting, we believe the public announcement of the meeting being “public”, and the ability of the public to attend… the event meets the standards of being public in order to release company information.  And even if he wanted to eliminate any improprieties regarding the release, he could hit the send button on the filing minutes before the meeting.  

Regardless of the release date of the 10-K… we still have concerns that the run-up to the release was in fact, non-existent.  See last night’s post here for details. 

However, and in spite of the above, we also believe that long-term, PNCH has great potential.  PNCH has real product, and is moving quickly in building the business.  Revenues will follow… and the PPS will follow also. 

And the wait continues…

 

PNCH not able to hold a penny…

Well… still no 10-K yet, and after modest gains over the last few days, PNCH suffered a loss of almost 10% today.  We are losing confidence that the 10-K and/or shareholder meeting will be the catalyst everyone thought it would be.  Most were expecting a substantial run up leading into the release of the 10-K… but volume has been low the last couple of days, and PNCH can’t seem to hold even a penny.  This is not promising !

You know the old saying in investing… “buy the rumor – sell the news”.  Well… no one is buying the rumor, and we fear that unless the 10-K is “stellar”, investors will be selling the news regardless of the revenues.

Of course there is plenty of speculation on the cause of this lackluster performance of late, from the short sellers on LieHub (if there really are any) to the evil marker makers.  Truth is… who really cares… because whatever is the cause… its working.  The PPS is, and has been, languishing below a penny for several months, only popping temporarily to high of a penny and a half for only a few days last month.

Not sure what the future holds for PNCH, but unless this 10-K is stellar, and/or Steve can pull a rabbit out of a hat at the shareholder meeting, we think the PPS will languish for a while longer.  Perhaps, and assuming… each successive quarterly reports start showing substantial gains, then the PPS might start a gradual climb northward.  However, unless there are some new eyes and investors on this stock, the gains will be modest along the way.  Steve needs to be able to attract a lot of new investors to this company.  He needs an Academy Award performance at the shareholder/upfront meeting Sunday !  There is only so much the current shareholders can do.  They likely have most, of not all, their available funds tied up in this thing, that there is very little they can do in the way of buying more shares to move it up.

Stayed tuned folks… we should know something by next week.  We think trading next week will set the pace for the short term future.  Based on the buying pattern leading up to the release of the 10-K and the shareholder meeting… we are not optimistic about this thing getting much over a penny or more, and holding it.  We hope we are wrong !  Maybe after the 1st quarter 10-Q is released in a few weeks things will be looking better, but that is assuming that the revenues show another substantial increase.  Keep in mind, the figures on the 10-K are already over 3-months old.  If the 1st quarter is released in a timely fashion, and they are great, then maybe we start to see some improvement… but there are a lot of if’s to get by first.

Great day… up 35% !

Yes. a great day today.  PNCH up 35% on about average volume.  Investors seem to be buying, in anticipation of the impending 10-K release, as well as the shareholder and up-front meeting this Sunday.   Still no news on the release of the 10-K.  We anticipate its release before the shareholder meeting, but time is running out.  If its not out tomorrow or Wednesday, then its likely to be released Friday after market close.  However, we would not rule out its release AT the shareholder meeting.  Releasing it during the shareholder meeting would allow for maximum impact on shareholders (who attend the meeting).  I can just hear the excitement and applause from the crowd as Steve reads the highlights from the “best 10-K he’s ever worked on“.   But remember, he has till the following Monday to release it and still be compliant with the extension filed, however we feel that would be extremely unlikely.

Hopefully, a gap up tomorrow and maybe we see the PPS break through a penny again tomorrow.  Remember, it reached a high of .016 just a little over 2-weeks ago.  Hopefully this week we can break through that resistance and set a new record in this overall recovery climb back up and through the 5-cent area set last June.  A great 10-K, and some good news released during the shareholder meeting… and its a real possibility !

Has the CEO “lied” ???

(names withheld to protect the, um “innocent”)… you are entitled to your opinion, but you are not entitled to your own facts.

Lies have their roots in intent. You have no way of knowing what Steve’s intent was when he made those statements. You may THINK you know, you may have an OPINION on his statements… but in reality, you don’t actually know what intent Steve had when he made the statements. Only Steve knows what his intent was (unless of course he told someone what his intent was… YOU maybe?)

The mere lack of a stated outcome (or an unfavorable outcome) from a statement does not prove the statement a lie.   Example… if we were to tell you we would meet you at the mall at 5:00p, and we show up at 5:30p… did we “lie” about meeting you at 5:00p? It depends on the circumstances, right?  If we knew that we were meeting someone else at the very same time we told you we would meet you, then yes, it could be considered a lie, because our intent was to deceive you because we knew we were meeting someone else and could not met you at the very same time. However, if there was an unexpected traffic accident preventing us from being on time, in spite of our sincere attempts to do so… We think all would agree, our statement was not a lie. Granted, not accurate.. but not a lie because there was no attempt to mislead or defraud.

You attempt to paint a picture that Steve lies about almost everything, i.e. your statement of… “Sorry I sound so down on Steve. But that’s truly how I feel about people who can’t tell the truth.”  You make matter-of-fact statements like that about the broad range of Steve’s statements (called generalizing), and you simply have no basis in fact to do so. Again, you are entitled to your opinion, but your statements are made in a manner which indicates you are trying to convince others of the same notion. You are drawing a conclusion based on the lack of stated outcome… as you interpret the outcome.

You also cite Steve’s actions as “pumping”. Well… he is CEO of the company… that’s his job !  Who wants a CEO that is not out there promoting his business? You stated he makes “bizarre predictions”… who determines what is “bizarre” ? What’s bizarre to you, who is skeptical of ALL his actions, may not be bizarre to others. Here again, you are entitled to your own opinion, but not your own facts. “Bizarre” is commonly defined as “strikingly out of the ordinary” and/or “involving sensational contrasts or incongruities”. Steve’s previous statements about his thoughts, intentions, and or plans for the company and its direction are nothing out of the ordinary for any business, and would never be thought of as bizarre by anyone who understands what it takes to operate a business. Businesses make plans that never become reality due to any number of reasons. However, we fall back to intent here also… was it Steve’s intent to mislead… in addition to there being no evidence of such… only Steve knows what his intent was.

Business promotions come in a lot of different forms. EVERY business (and/or CEO) promotes their business. Many have announced plans that have either not become reality, or the end result looks completely different from the initial promotion. Example…. does the meal in the picture ever look like the meal that is served… or does the car you buy ever really get the MPG they state in the ad?

Having said the above… are we happy with EVERYTHING Steve has said and done, of course not, but we understand the difference between dishonesty, and adapted or failed plans.

Good news… Bad news…

Well… do you want the good news first, or the bad news first… lol.

OK… here is the good news… The PPS shot up 30% today !  That’s a good day any day !

The bad news… its 11:30p on the east coast and no 10-K yet.  Some investors are upset, some are frustrated, some are trying to justify it, and still others are saying its a good thing.  In fact, there is even disagreement over what the CEO meant when he said “end of the week”.  Some say today (being Friday) is the last [business] day of the week, while others argue its Saturday, and still others argue its Sunday.  Its the classic scenario of the more people you put in the room, the less chance you will have any agreement on anything.

Then there is the group that says they don’t care when the K is released as long as its good.  There is the group that thinks the CEO has strategically timed the release for maximum benefit on the PPS.   There are also those that are now boasting they have “secrete” information about what will be in the K… but of course they can’t reveal anything because its confidential.  Our question is… if its so confidential, how did THEY get the info???   AND… even if you did have confidential info, why would you show up on a message board, boast about having the info, but then say you can’t tell anyone.  Please… do everyone a favor… if you have confidential information, keep it to yourself unless you are prepared to release it.  Otherwise it has a reverse effect, in that no one envies you… everyone is angry with you for the shameful tease.  

So… we all wait for the release of the report.  Could it be released over the weekend… perhaps, but unlikely.  It looks now like its Monday or later at this point.  And also keep in mind that the stockholders meeting is scheduled for Saturday next week.  Technically Steve has until the 15th to release the K, but its highly unlikely he will release the K after the shareholder meeting.  Maybe he’s planning to release the report AT the meeting. 

Who knows… its just speculation all around on when it will be released.  But here is one thing that is not speculation… all the delay, secrecy, and false release date information is not doing anyone any good.  If the report is a great one, much of the frustration leading up to the release will be largely forgotten, however all of what has transpired leading up to the release of this report has chipped away at the creditability factor for the CEO.  You can better believe the next time he posts any information about release dates, they will likely be taken with a grain of salt.  That is a shame.  As a CEO your word should be beyond reproach.  Accomplishments come and go, but a man’s reputation can be very easily tarnished, and is the most difficult to rebuild.  

And so we wait… and we wait…. and we wait some more. 

Where’s the K ???

We are about to turn blue holding our breaths for the release of the 10-K.  Steve posted Monday on the LieHub board that the K would be released “later this week“.  Well, it doesn’t get any later this week than tomorrow.  Will he disappoint again ???  Hope not.  If he doesn’t disappoint again, that means the K will be out tomorrow.  Hopefully it will be released before opening bell tomorrow morning so we can have a great run up tomorrow.  Steve has gone against the conventional thinking of other CEO’s before by releasing financial reports during trading hours, however most companies release before or after trading hours.  We shall see. 

 

Up 6.6%.. we’ll take it !

Good evening.  Well, PNCH rose today a little over 6% on light volume.  It actually fell a little during the day, but the increase held somewhat from the gap-up this morning.

Today’s news is… all the chatter on the message boards.  People seem to be getting frustrated and angry.  The bashers are out in full force over on LieHub.  Its really kind of funny to watch… however its sad that so many lies are being told over there about a good company.  If you have read the Basher’s Handbook you will be able to recognize the format they use.  One basher hammers on the “dilution” angle, another one hammers on the “toxic financing” angle, while others hammer on the CEO being a “liar” angle.  They also deflect and distort the facts.  When they just can’t refute the facts, they simply change the topic. Then there is the group of freshman bashers that simply parrot what the pro’s are posting.  Then… and the most insidious type of basher…  the “passive basher”.  This is the basher that posts they are “long” in the stock, and have confidence in the company… but proceed to bash the stock, CEO, and company in general, but do it in such a passive tone as to seem genuine.  DON’T FALL FOR ANY OF THEM !!!  Do you own DD and learn the facts for yourself !!!

There are those that say… if you see this level of bashing… there MUST be a reason for it.  There is… its a good company, and stock.  Rule 101 in the Basher Handbook is… bashers don’t bash a bad stock !  Those bashers cost money to hire, and they don’t work cheap.  When you see this many bashers fan out across any and all electronic mediums available… you know their bosses are short the stock and need to drive the price down, and they need to get YOUR shares if you have any.    The level of increased activity seen lately is because they know the 10-K is due out any minute now, followed shortly thereafter by the shareholder meeting, followed by the 1st quarter results in the 10-Q report.  Its due or die for them right now.  If they can’t drive the price down far enough to make a healthy profit (which they need to pay the bashers), then their goose is cooked when the good news starts hitting the airwaves and the PPS starts to rise.

Please… don’t read those message boards and think that is all you need to do.  Read the Basher Handbook so that you can recognize the tactics they use.  Then, follow up on any data or opinions asserted on the boards.  In fact, if you are not convinced there are those that professionally bash stocks… then follow up on their posts also.  You will soon see who’s posts are more creditable.  We are confident that if you do your own follow up and research, you will see the truth for yourself.

At the risk of sounding self-serving… we suggest you visit our website for the best spot to start your research.  There you will find information that is supported by documents and links to impartial sources to verify the information you see.  But don’t stop there.  Continue to do your research.  One of the most favorite lies the bashers hammer on is, that PNCH is a “scam”.  Well… go check that out.  Go to the PunchTV website.  Do you see ads running, do you see programs airing, does it look like a scam?  Go visit our “Links” page on our website.  There you will find links to numerous sites that will verify PNCH is not a scam, and that it has a very real product, and makes very real money.  Visit our “FAQ’s”  page for news and events that have happened in the past, and for myth and basher busting documents and links.

And finally… and most importantly… visit our LieHub page.  There you will get the REAL facts on LieHub and what they are all about.  And remember… these links and documents are verifiable independent sources of information… not some anonymous poster hiding behind an alias on a message board just posting to see his name in print and posting an unsubstantiated opinion.

Protect your investment… do your research before you buy, or sell !

 

Boring day…

Today was uneventful so to speak.  PNCH gained about 4% on almost 23 million in volume.  Still no 10-K yet.  Everyone is on watch for its release.

Here is the exciting news… the High of the Day (HOD) was .0059.  We closed at .0045, which was where we opened at.  The gain was a slight gap up from yesterdays close.  However, some say this is a good sign that there was huge volume.  Called a “gravestone doji”… it could be a good sign.  Tomorrow we may be in for a bullish reversal.  For those of you who may be unfamiliar with the terminology of candlesticks… that means if you’re an investor, you may make some money tomorrow.  And if the 10-K appears during this run back up to previous highs of last Monday, investors may make a lot of money.

Most investors (and in fact the bashers also) are eagerly awaiting the release of the 10-K.  For the investors, if the K is good, as is anticipated, they believe the stock will take off.  The bashers are eagerly awaiting also, and if its good, their bashing becomes laughable, and if its bad, they get to say I told you so and continue to bash the stock. 

So… everyone waits ! 

 

Another disappointing day !

Yes, its true, another disappointing day.  PPS fell almost 33% on over 35 million shares traded.  Conventional wisdom points to the Late Filing form that was filed today.  There was built-up anticipation for the 10-k form to be filed today, and when news hit that it would not be filed, the stock took a dive.

There is a lot of anger being exhibited on the message boards today over this action.  And who could blame them.  Many are upside down on their investments, and with the CEO dropping hints that this was going to be a really good 10-K (“the best he ever worked on”) they were looking forward to a significant rise in the PPS today.  It appears many feel not only disappointment, but also betrayal.  The CEO first stated that the K would be filed 3/29.  Then it was learned that due to the 29th being Good Friday, the K would be filed on 4/1.  Then today learning it was delayed again.  And, many still remember when it was initially thought that the K would be filed 2/15.

This may be much to-do about nothing.  The CEO posted on LieHub (snubbed the Investors Hangout board once again) to say the K would be filed later this week.  Here is the actual quote: “We filed an extension today because we need a few extra days to Edgarize the K with all the additional assets and other items fully listed. We are very excited to put this out later this week.“.  However, in light of the above, we can understand how some, maybe many, would be skeptical about that statement at this point.

Those that felt betrayed that Steve didn’t give investors a warning that the report might, or would be, late,  perhaps doesn’t understand the strict limitations a CEO has imposed on what, when, and how they can release information to the general public.  There have been some recent news that one CEO is under investigation by the SEC for making a statement on Facebook about some business aspects of his company.  The safest thing any CEO can do is speak through PR releases, and in the case today, SEC filings.  We feel… filing late is the last thing Steve wanted to do today.

HOWEVER… the filing of reports just doesn’t sneak up on you… as a CEO you know when they are due… months and years in advance.  So, although there may have been external circumstances that caused today’s late filing notice… good planning anticipates obstacles and allows for such.  Since this report is a detailed accounting of events that happened in the past, this report could have been completed long ago.  Theoretically this report could have been completed say in mid to late January.  If it takes 10 business days to complete the report, then a prudent planner doesn’t wait till 10 days before the due date to start the report.  This is a year-end report for 2012.  The year ended over 3 full months ago.  The financial data was established over 3-months ago and would have not changed no matter  how long you waited to start the reporting.  We feel, today’s issue could have been totally avoided had more priority been given toward this report.  And we feel, given the significance of this report, it should have been given a higher priority.

Now, having said that, we feel people overreacted at today’s news.  But… that’s investors for you.  They frequently get spooked at the slightest things.  The real reason many are upset over the late filing notice today is… greed.    The anger, frustration, and betrayal would have been minimized, and short lived had the PPS not taken a dive.  Why did the PPS take a dive… investors got spooked and sold.  People lost money today on their investment.   When they woke up this morning they thought they were going to see a substantial increase in their investment portfolio.  When that didn’t happen, they looked for someone and something to blame.

Did IC Punch Media change business strategies today, did they lose any affiliates today, did they announce they were having financial troubles… no, they announced the reporting – on 3-month old data, would be a few days late.  As one poster put it… “BFD”.  PNCH is still the same company today as it was yesterday.  The data will not change because it will be reported a few days late.  If the report was going to be great today, then it will be great later this week also.  Even after the notice of delay Steve still says… ” We are very excited to put this out later this week.“.

So… yes, we are disappointed also, but we did not sell today.  We will wait, because we believe the numbers will be good, and the company is good.  We also believe that the company is growing everyday, and our investment will grow along with the company.

Later this week we anticipate today’s activity will be a distant memory.  When the PPS starts back up, those that were extremely disappointed today, will be all smiles next week, next month, and next year.